Probabilistic concept of defining the situations possible to occur during operation of floating docks

Abstract

In this paper possibility to assess safety of floating docks as a result of application of the theory of semi-Markov processes both in the phase of their designing and operating, is outlined. Formal description of the situations which may occur during service of floating docks both those intended for building and repairing the ships, was presented. The following situations were distinguished: normal, complicated, hazardous, emergency and disastrous. A model of changing the distinguished situations was proposed in the form of a semi - Markov process with discrete set of states, and continuous with time. The mentioned situations are values of the process. An operational safety measure for dock was formulated in the form of the probability of the event consisting in occurrence of normal or complicated situation. It was proved that assessment of probability of occurrence of particular situations is possible.